As the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference approaches once again, there has been speculation over whether the focus will be on Leopard or iPhone. For developers, there is one overriding issue; for consumers there are at least another three.
The four big “ifs” of the upcoming iPhone arise out of Apple’s traditional obsession of keeping tight control over its product platforms. The iPhone is entering a huge market where pretty much everything is open, interchangeable and has been to a great degree been commoditised in favor of the consumer. Having played with one briefly at a Macworld media audience, I can say that the iPhone is a captivating device. However, playing with an iPhone is not the same as living with one.
Will mobile phone and smartphone consumers accept the closed Apple iPhone platform? Right now, all the market research screams yes. Consumers in the US are lining up to get their hands on the new Apple device when it goes on sale on June 29. However, virtually no-one has had a chance to touch an iPhone, let alone live with one.
Market intelligence says that the still growing legions of Apple faithful alone will be enough to buoy iPhone sales for years to come. However, even Mac and iPod fans will eventually be forced to judge iPhone on its merits as a cellphone and smartphone first and foremost because most of them already own phones.
And it is here that the big “ifs” arise.
The first big “if” concerns price. The question is if consumers will be willing to pay US$499 and US$599 up front on a two-year contract for a phone. OK, it’s also an iPod and many iPod owners also have phones, so iPhone gives them two devices in one package. However, outside the US at least, even the fancier cellphones, with smartphone capabilities, such as the Blackberry Pearl and Nokia N95, can be had on two year contracts for nothing up front and dirt cheap capped price plans.
Then what happens after two years are up? These days cellphone users are used to simply ditching their existing phones and getting a new phone on contract without parting with a cent. Can Apple convince them to part with another $500 or more to upgrade to its latest model iPhone when the contract runs out?
Concerning reliability, the question is if the Apple iPhone will be robust and reliable enough to meet the needs of most cellphone and smartphone users. There’s no question that iPhone is a beautiful bleeding edge device. However, to a consumer market used to treating their mobile phone as a commodity that can be thrown on the table, it may just be too beautiful. There are questions surrounding the touch screen and what happens when it gets smudged and what happens if iPhone is continually subjected to moderately rough treatment.
I can remember a salesman in our local Apple store responding to a question about whether an iPod skin would protect it if it got dropped. He simply said with a wry smile: “If you drop your iPod expect it to break.” Well I’ve dropped different cellphones on several occasions. A few times the back has come off and the battery has spilled out. However, on every occasion after putting the phones back together, they worked fine. Will the iPhone be able to stand the drop test?
That brings us to the question of downtime. The iPhone may be turn out to be a very robust and reliable device but if it breaks down what do I do? If I have another phone that breaks down, I can simply transfer my SIM card to an earlier model I have sitting around the house until my phone is fixed. With iPhone, I have to send the phone to Apple and wait until it’s fixed before I have communications again.
The same thing goes for the iPhone battery. I don’t know anyone that actually keeps two batteries for their phone anymore, in case one runs out of charge. However, I do know that if my phone’s battery malfunctions, I can go down to my phone shop and simply replace it with a new one. With iPhone, the battery is not removable so a malfunctioning battery puts the phone out action and forces the user to give the phone back to Apple for service.
The big question that developers want answered is if they soon will be able to get open access to the iPhone so they can develop third party applications for the new device like they can for all other smartphones.
So far Apple has been coy on the issue of third party applications, citing with some justification the necessity of keeping tight control over the stability of the device. Apple doesn’t want to sell a phone that crashes because of dodgy applications. Then again it doesn’t want to miss out on a myriad of rich functionality that third party mobile developers could provide and says that it is working to find a solution to the problem.
For mobile developers, however, the request by Steve Jobs to be patient while the company works to find a way to enable third party development will wear thin if Apple keeps the iPhone platform closed for too long. This is one market where there are plenty of fish in the sea.
If market intelligence is correct – and there’s no reason to doubt it – Apple is likely to have trouble meeting early demand for the iPhone. However, the true test of whether this remarkable new device will be a winner will come after a few million are in the hands of users. There are a lot of “ifs” that are bound to be answered once that happens.
